The Next World War?
New Thinking for a New World - a Tallberg Foundation Podcast
08/08/24
•35m
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War in Ukraine. Fighting in Gaza, and across the Middle East. Risky air naval incidents in the South China Sea. Worries about a potential Taiwan conflict. All of it wrapped in visibly growing tensions between China and Russia on the one hand, and the United States and its allies on the other.
So much for the end of history and a lasting peace dividend. Once more, rival geopolitical blocks are maneuvering for advantage, competing directly and through proxies. Once more, economics is playing second fiddle to geopolitics as countries seek to secure their supply chains and ramp up military spending.
Is a war among the great powers possible? Could we be stumbling towards something that looks more like the hot and cold world wars of the 20th century than almost anyone thought possible?
Philip Zelikow is an American diplomat and a scholar with decades of frontline experience, thinking about and working on the great issues of war and peace. Listen as he discusses his fear about our future in this episode of New Thinking for a New World.
Do you think that the United States, China, and Russia are heading towards conflict?
Previous Episode
Europe’s Shameful Dumping
July 17, 2024
•33m
It’s not exactly headline news that many countries are inventing all sorts of novel ways to seal their borders from migrants and refugees or, when those efforts fail, to force the uninvited and unwanted to leave. It is news, however, when Europe funds, supports, and encourages governments of countries like Tunisia, Morocco, and Mauritania literally to dump refugees in the Sahara as either punishment or powerful disincentive for trying to escape to Europe.
Of course, on paper the lucrative deals the EU and individual European governments offer North African countries to stop migrants can be made to sound like humane, sensible solutions to the risks of leaky boats crossing the Mediterranean. But are they?
How are the hundreds of millions of euros paid to transit countries actually used? How are would-be refugees treated? Who assures their safety and survival? Does anyone worry about their human rights, never mind watching out for the kind of corruption that such programs can spawn?
There are answers to those questions, but they aren't pretty. Recently a collaboration of journalists, led in part by the Dutch-based organization Lighthouse Reports, published their conclusions under the headline, "Desert Dump.” May Bulman, Investigations Editor of Lighthouse Reports, summarizes what they learned.
Europe should be ashamed.
Tell us what you think.
Next Episode
Middle East Tinderbox, Houthi Edition
August 15, 2024
•37m
The Middle East is a war zone with Gaza as ground zero. But barely a day goes by when there isn't also fighting in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, Israel, the Red Sea, or elsewhere. The danger is that one of these battles could suddenly ignite a bigger conflict with global consequences.
Perhaps surprisingly, Yemen may be a prime candidate for that honor. For years the Iranian-backed Shia Houthis have been fighting, more or less successfully, the Saudi and Emirati-backed Sunni government; today the Houthis control a majority of Yemen's population, but not the country’s hydrocarbons. And—suddenly—they matter, far beyond Yemen’s borders.
Why? First, the Houthis are an integral part of Iran's coalition of regional militias who could become significant players in a regional conflict. Second, for months the Houthis have been attacking container ships going through the Red Sea, diverting substantial traffic away from the Suez Canal. Third, a recent Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv led Israel to launch a disproportionately devastating assault on the Yemeni port of Hodeida which was clearly aimed more at the Iranians than at the Houthis.
That’s exactly how a local conflict could become something much bigger.
Our guest on this episode is an expert in all things Yemen. Allison Minor is an American Middle East expert, at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Although she recently served as Deputy Special Envoy for Yemen at the U.S. State Department, the views she shared with New Thinking for a New World are her own, and not those of the American government.
What do you think: can a general war in the Middle East be avoided?
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