Middle East Tinderbox, Houthi Edition
New Thinking for a New World - a Tallberg Foundation Podcast
08/15/24
•37m
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The Middle East is a war zone with Gaza as ground zero. But barely a day goes by when there isn't also fighting in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, Israel, the Red Sea, or elsewhere. The danger is that one of these battles could suddenly ignite a bigger conflict with global consequences.
Perhaps surprisingly, Yemen may be a prime candidate for that honor. For years the Iranian-backed Shia Houthis have been fighting, more or less successfully, the Saudi and Emirati-backed Sunni government; today the Houthis control a majority of Yemen's population, but not the country’s hydrocarbons. And—suddenly—they matter, far beyond Yemen’s borders.
Why? First, the Houthis are an integral part of Iran's coalition of regional militias who could become significant players in a regional conflict. Second, for months the Houthis have been attacking container ships going through the Red Sea, diverting substantial traffic away from the Suez Canal. Third, a recent Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv led Israel to launch a disproportionately devastating assault on the Yemeni port of Hodeida which was clearly aimed more at the Iranians than at the Houthis.
That’s exactly how a local conflict could become something much bigger.
Our guest on this episode is an expert in all things Yemen. Allison Minor is an American Middle East expert, at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Although she recently served as Deputy Special Envoy for Yemen at the U.S. State Department, the views she shared with New Thinking for a New World are her own, and not those of the American government.
What do you think: can a general war in the Middle East be avoided?
Previous Episode
The Next World War?
August 8, 2024
•35m
War in Ukraine. Fighting in Gaza, and across the Middle East. Risky air naval incidents in the South China Sea. Worries about a potential Taiwan conflict. All of it wrapped in visibly growing tensions between China and Russia on the one hand, and the United States and its allies on the other.
So much for the end of history and a lasting peace dividend. Once more, rival geopolitical blocks are maneuvering for advantage, competing directly and through proxies. Once more, economics is playing second fiddle to geopolitics as countries seek to secure their supply chains and ramp up military spending.
Is a war among the great powers possible? Could we be stumbling towards something that looks more like the hot and cold world wars of the 20th century than almost anyone thought possible?
Philip Zelikow is an American diplomat and a scholar with decades of frontline experience, thinking about and working on the great issues of war and peace. Listen as he discusses his fear about our future in this episode of New Thinking for a New World.
Do you think that the United States, China, and Russia are heading towards conflict?
Next Episode
Israeli’s Divided House
August 22, 2024
•46m
Israel is at war, and not just with Hamas, Iran, the Houthis, and their fellow travelers. Israeli’s most dangerous war may be with itself.
That was certainly true before October 7th, and it’s still true. Back then the streets were full of protesters opposing Prime Minister Netanyahu, his government, and their policies; the country seemed split down the middle. That split has not disappeared: today more than three quarters of Israelis reportedly worry about the “strong or very strong" conflicts between the political right and left, while more than half worry about conflict between religious and secular Jews. Shockingly, in the midst of war, extremists recently breached an army base—the Israel Defense Forces are still the most trusted national institution—attempting to free soldiers accused of abusing Palestinian prisoners.
Arguably Netanyahu's declaration in June that “There will be no civil war” was an explicit acknowledgment of the deep, dangerous currents coursing through Israeli society.
October 7th and the subsequent war against Hamas have been catastrophic for Israelis and even more for Palestinians. It is not possible to imagine what the morning after might look like for anyone until the war ends. But it is possible to begin to understand how the past year has affected ordinary people: their daily lives, their hopes, and their fears for the future—Israeli as well as Palestinian. Any hope for a different future necessarily must start with such an understanding.
In that spirit, this is the first of what we hope will be a series of conversations with Israelis and with Palestinians, not about big-picture politics or strategy or the war, but about the human impact and implications of all the hatred and fighting and destruction of the past 10 months.
The first two voices are Israelis Leora Hadar and Naty Barak. Liora lives in a West Bank settlement and is a mother, a bibliotherapist, and an activist in the grassroots peace movement, Women Wage Peace. Naty is a retired businessman, sustainability expert farmer, and a longtime resident of Kibbutz Hatzerim in the Negev desert.
Listen as they talk about the tragedy of Israel's wars and tell us what you think.
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