115. Irina Rish - Out-of-distribution generalization

Towards Data Science

03/09/22

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50m

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Imagine, for example, an AI that’s trained to identify cows in images. Ideally, we’d want it to learn to detect cows based on their shape and colour. But what if the cow pictures we put in the training dataset always show cows standing on grass?

In that case, we have a spurious correlation between grass and cows, and if we’re not careful, our AI might learn to become a grass detector rather than a cow detector. Even worse, we could only realize that’s happened once we’ve deployed it in the real world and it runs into a cow that isn’t standing on grass for the first time.

So how do you build AI systems that can learn robust, general concepts that remain valid outside the context of their training data?

That’s the problem of out-of-distribution generalization, and it’s a central part of the research agenda of Irina Rish, a core member of the Mila— Quebec AI Research institute, and the Canadian Excellence Research Chair in Autonomous AI. Irina’s research explores many different strategies that aim to overcome the out-of-distribution problem, from empirical AI scaling efforts to more theoretical work, and she joined me to talk about just that on this episode of the podcast.

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Intro music:

Artist: Ron Gelinas

Track Title: Daybreak Chill Blend (original mix)

Link to Track: https://youtu.be/d8Y2sKIgFWc

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Chapters:

2:00 Research, safety, and generalization
8:20 Invariant risk minimization
15:00 Importance of scaling
21:35 Role of language
27:40 AGI and scaling
32:30 GPT versus ResNet 50
37:00 Potential revolutions in architecture
42:30 Inductive bias aspect
46:00 New risks
49:30 Wrap-up

Previous Episode

114. Sam Bowman - Are we under-hyping AI?

March 2, 2022

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47m

Google the phrase “AI over-hyped”, and you’ll find literally dozens of articles from the likes of Forbes, Wired, and Scientific American, all arguing that “AI isn’t really as impressive at it seems from the outside,” and “we still have a long way to go before we come up with *true* AI, don’t you know.”

Amusingly, despite the universality of the “AI is over-hyped” narrative, the statement that “We haven’t made as much progress in AI as you might thinkTM️” is often framed as somehow being an edgy, contrarian thing to believe.

All that pressure not to over-hype AI research really gets to people — researchers included. And they adjust their behaviour accordingly: they over-hedge their claims, cite outdated and since-resolved failure modes of AI systems, and generally avoid drawing straight lines between points that clearly show AI progress exploding across the board. All, presumably, to avoid being perceived as AI over-hypers.

Why does this matter? Well for one, under-hyping AI allows us to stay asleep — to delay answering many of the fundamental societal questions that come up when widespread automation of labour is on the table. But perhaps more importantly, it reduces the perceived urgency of addressing critical problems in AI safety and AI alignment.

Yes, we need to be careful that we’re not over-hyping AI. “AI startups” that don’t use AI are a problem. Predictions that artificial general intelligence is almost certainly a year away are a problem. Confidently prophesying major breakthroughs over short timescales absolutely does harm the credibility of the field.

But at the same time, we can’t let ourselves be so cautious that we’re not accurately communicating the true extent of AI’s progress and potential. So what’s the right balance?

That’s where Sam Bowman comes in. Sam is a professor at NYU, where he does research on AI and language modeling. But most important for today’s purposes, he’s the author of a paper titled, “When combating AI hype, proceed with caution,” in which he explores a trend he calls under-claiming — a common practice among researchers that consists of under-stating the extent of current AI capabilities, and over-emphasizing failure modes in ways that can be (unintentionally) deceptive.

Sam joined me to talk about under-claiming and what it means for AI progress on this episode of the Towards Data Science podcast.

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Intro music:

Artist: Ron Gelinas

Track Title: Daybreak Chill Blend (original mix)

Link to Track: https://youtu.be/d8Y2sKIgFWc

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Chapters:

2:15 Overview of the paper
8:50 Disappointing systems
13:05 Potential double standard
19:00 Moving away from multi-modality
23:50 Overall implications
28:15 Pressure to publish or perish
32:00 Announcement discrepancies
36:15 Policy angle
41:00 Recommendations
47:20 Wrap-up

Next Episode

116. Katya Sedova - AI-powered disinformation, present and future

March 23, 2022

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54m

Until recently, very few people were paying attention to the potential malicious applications of AI. And that made some sense: in an era where AIs were narrow and had to be purpose-built for every application, you’d need an entire research team to develop AI tools for malicious applications. Since it’s more profitable (and safer) for that kind of talent to work in the legal economy, AI didn’t offer much low-hanging fruit for malicious actors.

But today, that’s all changing. As AI becomes more flexible and general, the link between the purpose for which an AI was built and its potential downstream applications has all but disappeared. Large language models can be trained to perform valuable tasks, like supporting writers, translating between languages, or write better code. But a system that can write an essay can also write a fake news article, or power an army of humanlike text-generating bots.

More than any other moment in the history of AI, the move to scaled, general-purpose foundation models has shown how AI can be a double-edged sword. And now that these models exist, we have to come to terms with them, and figure out how to build societies that remain stable in the face of compelling AI-generated content, and increasingly accessible AI-powered tools with malicious use potential.

That’s why I wanted to speak with Katya Sedova, a former Congressional Fellow and Microsoft alumna who now works at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, where she recently co-authored some fascinating work exploring current and likely future malicious uses of AI. If you like this conversation I’d really recommend checking out her team’s latest report — it’s called “AI and the future of disinformation campaigns”.

Katya joined me to talk about malicious AI-powered chatbots, fake news generation and the future of AI-augmented influence campaigns on this episode of the TDS podcast.

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Intro music:

➞ Artist: Ron Gelinas

➞ Track Title: Daybreak Chill Blend (original mix)

➞ Link to Track: https://youtu.be/d8Y2sKIgFWc

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Chapters: