Worth Repeating: Peace How?
New Thinking for a New World - a Tallberg Foundation Podcast
03/14/24
•36m
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As Ukraine’s war enters its third year, it’s past time to dampen the rhetoric and tune up the reality. The war has shifted from failed Russian blitzkrieg, to valiant Ukrainian defense and then recovery, to unsuccessful Ukrainian counteroffensive, and now to war of attrition. But small countries—Ukraine’s effective population is only 1/5th of Russia’s and its economy only 1/10th the size of Russia’s—rarely win wars of attrition.
The conventional wisdom is that Western support can make up the difference. Wouldn’t a more realistic assessment be that such support—assuming it continues in ever greater magnitudes—can only prevent Ukraine from losing? Shouldn’t the expectation be that Russia, having overcome the bumbling and ineptitude of the first year of the war, is likely to push hard this spring at least to complete the seizure of Ukraine’s eastern oblasts? And then what?
Our guest on this week's New Thinking for a New World podcast has some clear ideas about the balance of forces, the risk of a Russian victory, and the contours of a potential negotiation that might lay the groundwork for renewed peace in Europe. George Beebe, director of the Grand Strategy Program at the Quincy Institute in Washington and a Russian expert, insists that such a negotiation requires continued US support for Ukraine. But he also insists that it's time for diplomacy.
Beebe and co-author Anatol Lieven recently published a must-read analysis entitled The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine and discussed his conclusions with host Alan Stoga.
What do you think? Should the United States push Ukraine towards negotiations?
You can read the article 'Give Peace a Chance,' which is based on the podcast, here: https://tallbergfoundation.org/articles/give-peace-a-chance/"
Previous Episode
Worth Repeating: Can Violent Extremists Leave Their Pasts Behind?
March 7, 2024
•39m
Violent extremism is growing globally. It doesn't know religion or creed. Where once it was confined to specific ideology or identity groups, at least in public discourse and discussion, now it appears across societies, across cultures and across borders. Violent extremist ideologies and actions are becoming part of the global fabric.
Why do people get involved in this type of violence? How can they disengage? Can violent extremists be helped to reenter society integrated in healthy, socially positive, empowered ways to engage as productive and peaceful citizens?
In this episode of New Thinking for a New World, guest host Michael Niconchuk looks for answers. Mike, a Tällberg Foundation board member, serves on the Advisory Board of the Counter Extremism Project and is a program manager at the Wend Collective. His guests are Juncal Fernandez-Garayzabal, development and program manager at the Counter Extremism Project, and Noah Tucker, program associate at George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs Central Asia Program.
Can violent extremists once again become productive citizens? Can you imagine someone with that history living next door to you?
This episode was originally published on Oct 26, 2023
Next Episode
Spring Migrations
March 21, 2024
•39m
Mass migration is once again in the headlines around the world. This is less because of the numbers of people on the move than because it is an intensely political year—and fear of migrants is grist for politicians’ fear-mongering. The United States is the exception where both apply.
In a world of increasing conflict, weak economic growth, and populist bombast it is easy to blame migrants. And then to tighten asylum policies, pay departure countries to disrupt travel, find supposedly “safe haven” countries to dump unwanted migrants, and imagine other creative ways to broadcast the message: MIGRANTS NOT WANTED!
Andrew Selee, President of the Washington-based Migration Policy Institute, has a different idea. How about a calm, expletives-deleted, fact-based pragmatic discussion about migration and migration policies? Listen as he makes his case for an approach to migration that is legal, practical, and in the interests of both destination countries and the migrants.
**Should your country accept more migrants? **Tell us what you think and leave a comment on our website
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