Will there be war?
New Thinking for a New World - a Tallberg Foundation Podcast
02/03/22
•38m
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Hostile troops massing on the border of a Central European democracy, fears of staged provocations, risk of a wider conflict that could spiral out of control, urgent diplomatic negotiations that fail to soften a would be aggressor's demands. No, it's not 1938, it's 2022, but Russia's threats against Ukraine and its demands for new security and arrangements in Europe sound all too familiar.
Of course, the huge difference today is that Germany is not only firmly anchored in the West but is a cornerstone of the European Union. Nonetheless, today's Germany is a center stage in the Ukraine crisis. What will Germany do? Is the new coalition government of one mind when it comes to balancing the country’s energy dependence on Russia with its obligations to NATO? Are President Putin’s demands for a revamped European security order reasonable, at least from Moscow’s perspective?
The Ukraine crisis is far from over; however it ends, the consequences will be profound. Constanze Stelzenmüller—an expert on Germany, geopolitics and trans-Atlantic relations who is based at the Brookings Institution in Washington—is deeply knowledgeable about all aspects of the crisis. Listen as she shares her views on what is at stake.
Previous Episode
Looking for Change in All the Right Places: The New Middle East
January 27, 2022
•32m
The Middle East is changing. In the past couple of years, peace treaties have been signed between Arab countries and Israel. New investment and trade relationships are emerging based on economics, not religion. The threat of war between Shia and Sunni is no longer in the headlines. Western powers, especially the United States, seem to be fading from the scene.
Almost more amazing than any of that, in December more than 700,000 Saudi kids participated in a four-day rave in the Saudi desert with regular intermissions for Islamic prayers. What's going on? Has the Middle East of strict Islam suddenly turned into something more modern? Have the Arabs figured out how to move beyond religious conflict? In a world that wants to abandon hydrocarbons, are the Arabs just enjoying the last party before their world collapses?
What happens as foreign powers become spectators rather than actors? Can the locals actually find the peace and prosperity that has eluded them for so long?
Neil Quilliam is a deeply knowledgeable, experienced expert in the region. He has been engaged with the politics, economics and societies of the Middle East and North Africa for decades: today from his perch at Chatham House in London and earlier through his service in the UK's Foreign and Commonwealth Office and his history of living in, working on and studying the Gulf and the Levant.
Next Episode
Saving Democracy, One New Leader at a Time
February 10, 2022
•32m
In many, perhaps most countries in the West, there is a wide and growing gap between citizens and their political leaders. Governments often fail to deliver on basic aspects of the social contract and voters sometimes respond by endorsing extreme solutions on the right or the left. Populists have not proven any better at delivering what voters want, so anger and frustration increase while democracy suffers. COVID made it worse. On the one hand, most governments in most places gathered extraordinary powers during the pandemic. On the other hand, few governments actually translated that power into better outcomes for their citizens.
Even as the pandemic seems to be easing, the residue remains: more inequality, more inflation, more economic and social stress. If there is a silver lining, it is that our sorry condition has caused some people to rethink how politics ought to work and try to reinvent, rather than tear down, democratic processes and institutions. Alice Barbe, a French political activist, has founded the Academy of Future Leaders to do exactly that. Alice was a finalist in last year's Tällberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize and recently shared her ideas, hopes and solutions. Do you think she is headed in the right direction?
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