War Without End?
New Thinking for a New World - a Tallberg Foundation Podcast
11/30/23
•27m
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On January 1st Ukraine’s President Zelensky welcomed 2023 with the words, "Happy New Year! The year of our victory!’ Instead, as we approach year’s end, the conflict seems to have settled into a war of attrition which neither side can win or lose. In spite of the bravery of Ukraine's troops and more support from the West than anyone expected, Ukraine's much-heralded summer offensive looks to have failed, or at least stalled.
What comes next? Rinse and repeat? Negotiation? Some kind of dramatic escalation that changes the rhythm of this horrible war?
Our guest on New Thinking for New World is Svitlana Morenets, a Ukrainian journalist who is now a staff writer at Britain’s Spectator magazine recently published an absolutely brilliant article titled “Zelensky Must Be Honest About the State of the War.” She ended her piece this way. "The real question is the extent of the sacrifice everyone is willing to make and what the most probable outcome will be if they choose not to pay that price anymore.”
Listen as we discuss what an honest assessment might mean. And join the conversation: “Do you think Ukraine can win?"
Previous Episode
Getting Russia Right
November 9, 2023
•35m
Winston Churchill famously said that Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. After the end of the Cold War, many in the West thought the puzzle was solved. The Soviet Union had collapsed. Russians would embrace free markets and even liberal democracy. And President Obama could dismiss Russia as merely a “regional," not a great power. Case closed; time to pivot to Asia.
But reality has a way of complicating simplistic thinking. First, President Putin consolidated his domestic control, then allied his country with China in starting to rewrite the rules of global order, and finally invaded Ukraine last year. Now Putin is a “war criminal,” his country’s financial assets seized and exports have been banned (more in theory than in practice), and sanctions imposed on Russian officials as well as on oligarchs thought to be Putin supporters.
The Great Power has become the Great Pariah—but remains a great enigma.
Getting Russia Right is both a national security imperative and the name of a recently published book by Thomas Graham, one of America’s foremost Russian analysts. Graham has spent much of the last 40 years trying to understand Russia, not as the United States wanted it to be, but as it was and now is. His book is an important contribution to thinking about how to cope with Russia today as well as tomorrow.
What do you think? Is Russia still a Great Power?
Next Episode
Cry for Argentina?
December 7, 2023
•32m
Why not? The country's inflation rate is approaching 150%. 40% of its people live in poverty. The currency is practically worthless. And Argentina is the IMF’s largest debtor because practically no one else will lend it money.
By any definition, the country is an economic basket case. However, unlike the rest of the world’s failed economies, Argentina has a well-educated population, innovative world-class tech sector, robust natural resources, and world-leading wheat, soybeans, and meat exports.
Arguably, Argentina isn’t a failed state, but it has mostly been run by failed politicians.
So it is not surprising that voters just opted to try something radically different, electing a president who describes himself as an "anarcho-capitalist" and promised to use a chainsaw (one of his favorite campaign props) to slash government spending. Can Javier Milei fix what’s broken? Will Argentina’s entrenched politicians get out of the way of his promised shock therapy?
Eduardo Amadeo is optimistic, as you will hear in this episode of New Thinking for a New World. That’s a good sign since Amadeo--economist, businessman, social entrepreneur, and politician—has spent much of his career trying to get his fellow countrymen headed in the right direction. Maybe a radical libertarian economist will finally get the job done.
Listen and tell us whether you think Argentina can finally escape the mess it has made for itself HERE.
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